Duke managed to win the ACC tournament title largely without Cooper Flagg, the consensus national player of the year frontrunner and a virtual lock to be the No. 1 pick in the upcoming NBA Draft. With Flagg expected to return for the NCAA tournament, the question looms: who can stop Duke in the East region? While the Blue Devils are likely to face challenges at some point, their path to the Final Four seems formidable. The quest to dethrone Duke begins in the first round, where several intriguing matchups await in their bracket quadrant.
No. 14 Montana (+16.5) vs. No. 3 Wisconsin, 1:30 p.m. Thursday
Casual fans might not recognize this version of Wisconsin, which has shown flashes of high-scoring offense this season, including a 100-point game against Arizona and Iowa. However, the Big Ten championship game revealed a different story, as a fatigued Badgers squad managed just 53 points in a loss to Michigan. Star player John Tonje struggled mightily, shooting 1-of-14. Was this an anomaly or a sign of an impending offensive slump? Playing in Denver’s altitude won’t help Wisconsin’s fatigue issues. Montana, despite playing in the historically underperforming Big Sky Conference (3-10-1 against the spread in the first round since 2009), has been playing well lately. This spread feels too wide, even against a Wisconsin team capable of scoring.
No. 6 BYU (-3.5) vs. No. 11 VCU, 4:05 p.m. Thursday
It’s unfortunate when two teams you like end up facing each other early in the tournament. BYU has been one of the hottest teams in college basketball since February 11, ranking fifth nationally according to BartTorvik.com. The Cougars also benefit from a shorter trip to Denver and familiarity with the elevation. VCU, meanwhile, boasts a strong defense and tournament experience, making them a dangerous No. 11 seed. While VCU has the potential to reach the second weekend, BYU’s recent form makes them the pick in what could be one of the best games of the first round.
No. 8 Mississippi State (-1.5) vs. No. 9 Baylor, 12:15 p.m. Friday
Baylor’s season began with a 101-63 blowout loss to Gonzaga, setting the tone for a somewhat disappointing year. Despite having talent like projected NBA lottery pick VJ Edgecombe, the Bears have been inconsistent, failing to win more than two straight games since December. Mississippi State has also struggled since a strong 14-1 start, going 7-11 since early January. This 8 vs. 9 matchup features two teams unlikely to challenge Duke in the second round. The edge goes to the SEC team, but not with much confidence.
No. 15 Robert Morris (+22.5) vs. No. 2 Alabama, 12:40 p.m. Friday
Robert Morris led all Division I teams this season with a 26-7 record against the spread, according to Action Network. While ATS performance isn’t always predictive, it’s worth noting. Alabama, which closed the regular season with a win at Auburn, is a high-paced team capable of blowing out opponents. However, Robert Morris’s ability to cover spreads suggests they can keep this game competitive.
No. 7 St. Mary’s (-3.5) vs. No. 10 Vanderbilt, 4:15 p.m. Friday
Road performance is a key metric for evaluating teams, and St. Mary’s excelled away from home, going 9-1. Vanderbilt, meanwhile, struggled on the road with a 3-7 record. While the SEC is tougher than the West Coast Conference, St. Mary’s also performed better in Quad 1 and Quad 2 games (10-5 compared to Vanderbilt’s 9-12). St. Mary’s is the better team and should cover the spread.
No. 13 Akron (+14.5) vs. No. 4 Arizona, 7:35 p.m. Friday
Arizona’s tournament performance will hinge on its inconsistent shooting. The Wildcats started 4-5 but rebounded with strong conference play, including key wins. Their 7-foot center Henri Veesaar could be a factor against Akron, one of the shortest teams in the tournament. However, Akron’s fast-paced, 3-point-heavy offense could keep this game close if they shoot well. The Zips dominated the MAC and are capable of covering a large spread.
No. 12 Liberty (+6.5) vs. No. 5 Oregon, 10:10 p.m. Friday
Liberty’s shooting prowess makes them a dangerous double-digit seed. The Flames ranked second in effective field-goal percentage and fifth in 3-point percentage, per KenPom.com. Oregon, despite an eight-game winning streak before falling to Michigan State in the Big Ten tournament, faces a tough challenge. While the Ducks have a travel edge with the game in Seattle, Liberty’s shooting makes them a strong pick to cover and a reasonable upset candidate for your bracket.
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