There’s a version of the Cincinnati Reds’ offseason where Emilio Pagán’s fierce ninth-inning glare returns under the lights at Great American Ball Park — a “run it back” story fans would love to see. But that version crashes hard into financial reality.
When a front office enters the winter with limited funds and multiple roster holes, bullpen spending quickly turns from priority to luxury. Even a proven closer — the guy who just stabilized chaos in high-leverage spots — becomes a tough fit once the math takes over.
And that math isn’t pretty. Pagán just delivered the kind of season that earns pitchers a hefty payday: two straight years with a K-BB% over 20, a strikeout rate around 30%, and the confidence to handle the closer role without flinching. Yet he remains the classic modern reliever paradox — overpowering until one mistake turns into a long fly that doesn’t come back.
In Cincinnati, where fly balls often turn into souvenirs, that volatility carries a real price tag. Add in his projected two-year, $32 million contract, and it’s not just about signing Pagán — it’s about choosing him instead of addressing two or three other needs.
Reds’ budget crunch makes a Pagán reunion unlikely
President of baseball operations Nick Krall has already hinted that the 2026 payroll will align closely with 2025’s. That likely leaves around $20 million in flexible spending — not much for a roster still needing rotation depth, a right-handed power bat, and reliable middle-inning arms. Handing $16 million annually to a single reliever would all but erase that flexibility.
None of this is a knock on Pagán’s 2024 performance. He tightened up his command, missed bats without giving away free passes, and wore the closer title with poise. He’s earned a robust market — and the Reds have earned the right to stay disciplined.
The real challenge is opportunity cost. For what Pagán might command annually, Cincinnati could instead add a short-term starter and another leverage reliever, or split the money between multiple multi-inning bullpen options. They could even lean on league-minimum arms internally and supplement with one mid-tier veteran rather than splurging on a marquee closer. That plan may not win headlines, but it wins during the grind of a 162-game season.
Could a creative contract bring Pagán back? Possibly — something incentive-heavy, with bonuses tied to appearances or games finished, maybe even a vesting option for a third year. But even then, it only makes sense if the Reds can still check off their other offseason needs without stretching the budget too thin.
Pagán’s earned his payday. The Reds, meanwhile, have to prioritize balance over sentiment. In a hitter-friendly park and with finite resources, smart spending — not splashy spending — is the key to staying competitive.
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