Some might argue that the Minnesota Vikings got lucky by signing Sam Darnold to a modest one-year deal ($10 million total), turning the team into one of the NFL’s top contenders. But what if Darnold, who was largely viewed as a bust after being selected third overall by the New York Jets in 2018, can maintain this high level of play long-term under head coach Kevin O’Connell’s favorable offensive system? If the Vikings believe he can, it could change the trajectory of the franchise.
James Palmer of Bleacher Report predicted on his Dec. 26 podcast that Minnesota might extend Darnold on a multi-year contract. “I see Sam Darnold staying,” Palmer said. “That’s an option right now… [though] the conversations haven’t happened yet.” While this move seems like the safest option, considering Darnold has led the team to a 13-2 record with 3,776 passing yards, 32 touchdowns, and 11 interceptions this season, keeping him beyond 2024 carries significant risks.
First, the Vikings would have to delay the development of injured quarterback J.J. McCarthy, who has missed this entire season due to a knee injury. Minnesota spent the No. 10 overall pick on McCarthy, and if he proves to be a strong player, he could offer more value than Darnold, as he would cost far less and be six years younger. Palmer, however, dismissed this concern. “McCarthy is 21 years old,” Palmer said. “If you delay his ascendance by keeping Sam Darnold, I wouldn’t think that’s the worst thing in the world.”
The second issue is the potential cost of keeping Darnold. Palmer noted that up to six teams could be interested in him, given the weak draft class and free-agent quarterback pool this year. “Things are shaping up really well for Sam Darnold,” Palmer added. “He’s going to be at the top of this class.” Spotrac projects a four-year, $142 million deal for Darnold. While the Vikings have ample cap space, they would be spending an extra $35.5 million annually on Darnold instead of using that money to improve the roster around a much cheaper first-round pick in McCarthy.
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