Breaking-News: Vikings’ Sam Darnold Set to Cash In Big—But Is the Raiders’ $125 Million Gamble a Risky Move?

The Minnesota Vikings helped reshape QB Sam Darnold’s career, and now he’s poised to cash in on his standout season in Minneapolis.

Ryan McFadden predicts that Darnold will sign a lucrative three-year deal worth $125 million with the Las Vegas Raiders this offseason, including $55 million in guaranteed money. The Vikings had signed him to a one-year contract for only $10 million in 2024, and he went on to throw for over 4,300 yards and 35 touchdowns.

“New Raiders coach Pete Carroll wants to win immediately, and the key to achieving that is securing a franchise quarterback,” McFadden wrote on March 5. “This year’s QB draft class is weaker than last year’s, pushing Las Vegas to be aggressive in free agency. Darnold, at just 27 years old, has the skill set to thrive in Chip Kelly’s offense. With a loaded AFC West and the Raiders’ desperate need for a reliable QB after ranking 30th in QBR last season, Darnold could make an instant impact.”

Agent's Take: Five players making good use of contract year, including  Vikings' Sam Darnold - CBSSports.com Sam Darnold

While McFadden isn’t alone in predicting Darnold will head to Las Vegas, some analysts are skeptical about his ability to succeed outside of Kevin O’Connell’s system. Kelly, an experienced NFL coach, has also seen success with high-powered offenses, including leading Ohio State to a national championship. But many remain unconvinced Darnold can replicate his success elsewhere after struggling in his six years and three previous stops before joining O’Connell in 2024.

Despite his strong arm and youth at 27, Darnold’s past performances have raised doubts. Analysts like Brad Gagnon of Bleacher Report argue that committing big money to Darnold could be a mistake this offseason. Gagnon pointed out his disappointing performances in crucial games, including a loss to the Detroit Lions and an even more significant playoff defeat to the Los Angeles Rams. “He was on his fourth team in five years for a reason, and someone could regret adding him to their roster again,” Gagnon concluded.

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