Even after losing both Max Fried and Charlie Morton to free agency, the Braves’ rotation has been outstanding in May, helping the team to a 10-7 record despite inconsistent offensive production. It’s especially impressive considering how little the team has invested financially in the rotation. None of the current starters were free-agent signings, and four were developed within the Braves’ system.
General manager Alex Anthopoulos has never been known for big free-agent spending. Instead, he focuses on extending homegrown talent with long-term, team-friendly deals. When he does swing big, it’s usually through trades. His largest free-agent signing to date is a $65 million deal for Marcell Ozuna — a modest sum by today’s standards given Atlanta’s payroll now exceeds $200 million.
Still, a few offseasons ago, Anthopoulos was eyeing one of the top arms on the market: Aaron Nola. At the time, Nola was in his prime and one of the game’s few remaining durable starters. From 2017 to 2023 (excluding the pandemic-shortened 2020 season), he made at least 27 starts each year and accumulated 30.3 WAR. Adding him to a rotation with Max Fried and Spencer Strider seemed like a dream scenario.
The Braves reportedly offered Nola a six-year, $162 million deal, but the Phillies weren’t about to let him walk — especially not to a division rival. They re-signed him for seven years and $172 million.
Nola lived up to expectations in year one, posting a 3.57 ERA over an MLB-best 33 starts and compiling 3.7 WAR. But 2025 has been a different story. Through nine starts, he’s 1-7 with a bloated 6.16 ERA, and his underlying metrics aren’t encouraging. While he still has some strikeout ability, his fastball velocity is trending dangerously close to 90 mph — a troubling sign, especially as hitters are teeing off on it, batting .300 with an .850 slugging percentage.
Given he’s now over 30 and just in the second season of a seven-year megadeal, the early returns raise concerns. This is exactly why massive long-term contracts for pitchers so often backfire. In hindsight, the Braves may have narrowly avoided a costly mistake — and Anthopoulos deserves more recognition for staying disciplined at the negotiating table.
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