Before the 2023 season, the New York Yankees secured their superstar Aaron Judge, then 30 years old, with what was the third-largest contract in MLB history at the time. After a record-breaking 62 home run season — an American League record and the highest single-season total outside the “steroid era” — Judge signed a nine-year, $360 million deal with the Yankees.
At that point, Judge’s contract ranked behind only Mike Trout’s 12-year, $465 million deal with the Los Angeles Angels and Mookie Betts’ 12-year, $365 million contract with the Los Angeles Dodgers.
However, all three of those contracts were surpassed this offseason when former Yankees outfielder Juan Soto joined the New York Mets with a staggering 13-year, $765 million agreement.
As of Sunday night, another major MLB contract has been announced. Reports confirm that the Toronto Blue Jays have extended their 26-year-old first baseman Vladimir Guerrero Jr. with a massive 14-year, $500 million contract, with the deal set to begin in 2026 after Guerrero signs a one-year, $28.5 million contract for 2025.
Guerrero’s new deal ranks second in MLB history for Average Annual Value (AAV), just behind Soto’s deal, slightly surpassing Trout’s AAV. Guerrero will earn $35.71 million per year, compared to Trout’s $35.54 million. While Soto remains at the top with an AAV of $51 million, Judge’s deal, which pays $40 million annually, now seems like a great value by comparison.
In terms of performance, Judge has clearly outpaced Guerrero. Looking at “wins above replacement” (WAR), Judge has amassed a total of 53.3 in 1,002 games, while Guerrero has 21.6 in 829 games. On a per-162 game basis, Judge’s WAR is more than twice as high as Guerrero’s: 8.62 compared to 4.22.
Judge’s career OPS of 1.013 leads all active players and ranks 10th on the all-time list. In contrast, Guerrero’s career OPS is .861. When adjusted to OPS+, Guerrero’s rating is 137, indicating he hits 37% better than average, while Judge’s OPS+ of 174 shows he hits 74% better than the average player.
As a power hitter, Judge also holds a significant edge. He has hit 321 career home runs, averaging 36.76 homers per 500 plate appearances, while Guerrero has 160 home runs, averaging 22.32 per 500 plate appearances.
Defensively, Judge’s advantage is even more pronounced. As an outfielder, he has saved 58 defensive runs, according to Fangraphs. Guerrero, who has split his time between third and first base, has a total of -3 defensive runs saved, meaning his defense has cost his team runs.
With this new contract extension for Guerrero, the Yankees can feel even more confident in their investment in Judge, who offers much greater value per dollar spent.
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