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The Boston Red Sox had an eventful offseason, bolstering their roster in hopes of returning to the playoffs after a three-year hiatus. Among their key acquisitions was Walker Buehler, the Dodgers’ World Series hero. Buehler played a pivotal role in the Dodgers’ championship run, notably shutting out the Yankees for five innings in Game 3 and sealing the series in Game 5. Now, he aims to help the Red Sox chase another title. After recovering from Tommy John surgery, what can fans expect from Buehler in 2025? His spring training debut against the Mets on March 2 will offer the first glimpse.
Buehler struggled during the 2024 regular season, posting just one win in 16 starts with a career-worst 5.38 ERA. His strikeout rate also dipped to a career-low 7.69, despite maintaining his velocity. However, he showed flashes of his former self in the playoffs, going 1-1 with 13 strikeouts over 15 innings, and his K/9 rate slightly improved to 7.80. Buehler hasn’t pitched a full season since 2021, when he went 16-4 with a 2.47 ERA and a 9.19 K/9 rate. Prior to his surgery in 2022, he had consistently posted K/9 rates above 10.
Now fully recovered from his second Tommy John surgery, Buehler could follow in the footsteps of other successful post-surgery pitchers. Justin Verlander, for instance, returned in 2023 to win the AL Cy Young Award with an 18-4 record, a 1.75 ERA, and 185 strikeouts. Similarly, Adam Wainwright bounced back in 2012 after missing the 2011 season, making 32 starts with a 3.94 ERA and earning Cy Young votes in subsequent years. Buehler, with his seven-pitch arsenal and better velocity than Wainwright, could make adjustments to extend his outings and deliver solid performances.
While a Cy Young-caliber season might be too optimistic for 2025, Red Sox fans can reasonably expect Buehler to pitch deep into games, log 175+ innings, and maintain a K/9 rate between nine and 10. On a one-year deal, Buehler will be highly motivated to prove himself, potentially making him one of the offseason’s most valuable pitching additions.
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