I started by reviewing the top 20 contracts at each NFL position from 2020, focusing on how many of those top-earning players reached free agency before signing their latest deals. This helps us understand which veteran players can realistically be signed to fill starting roles.
Next, I evaluated the financial upside of hitting on a draft pick. For example, the 16th overall pick typically costs around $4 million per year. I compared that to the salary of the 10th-highest-paid player at each position in 2024 to measure potential savings.
What often goes unnoticed is how positional value should influence draft decisions. Choosing the “best available player” based solely on scouting grades doesn’t always translate into building the most effective 53-man roster. Take the tight end vs. wide receiver debate, for instance: drafting a tight end at $4 million could save you about $8 million annually—enough to sign a solid veteran like Zay Jones, Hollywood Brown, or Robert Woods.
But if you draft a wide receiver and he becomes a star, you might save closer to $19 million compared to market value. That savings could allow you to add a Dalton Schultz or Noah Fant and still have enough left to pick up a player like Andre James or Blake Cashman. So, even if a wide receiver isn’t graded as highly as another player, the value they bring at a premium position justifies the pick.
The takeaway? It’s perfectly reasonable to draft a guard in the first round now that top salaries at that position are nearing $20 million per year.
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