Recently, those fascinated by apocalyptic scenarios or just fascinated by numbers have been both intrigued and alarmed by the news of a large asteroid that may collide with Earth in late 2032.
The buzz began with reports stating that “asteroid 2024 YR4” had a roughly 1% chance of hitting the planet on December 22, 2032. Experts explained that while the probability was expected to rise slightly, they were hopeful it would eventually drop to zero as more data was gathered and the asteroid’s trajectory became clearer.
However, we’re still in the “increasing” phase, as the likelihood of impact now stands at 3.1%, according to reports from Tuesday.
The asteroid, measuring between 130 and 300 feet across, could cause regional damage but isn’t large enough to destroy the planet. Thankfully, it isn’t projected to strike anywhere near Minnesota. Still, it’s something to keep an eye on.
To put things into perspective, let’s ask: Will the Vikings win a Super Bowl before this asteroid hits Earth? Currently, the odds of the asteroid impacting the Earth in 2032 are slightly better than the Vikings’ odds of winning the Super Bowl, which stand at 35 to 1 according to BetMGM. This reflects the uncertainty surrounding the Vikings’ free agents and quarterback situation, despite their strong 14-3 finish in 2024.
In other words, the Vikings’ chance of winning the Super Bowl next season is about 2.8%, which is just below the asteroid’s 3.1% chance of striking. Statistically, the Vikings have a better shot at winning the Super Bowl before 2032, as there will be seven more Super Bowls before then. If the odds remain at 2.8% every year, the chances of the Vikings winning one during that period is around 20%.
That said, long-suffering Vikings fans might argue that the team’s odds of winning a Super Bowl — let alone in the next seven years — are close to zero.
And as for NASA, they’ll eventually confirm whether the asteroid’s chances of hitting Earth are truly 0% or a full 100%.
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