The Yankees’ trade for Fernando Cruz flew under the radar, with most of the offseason attention focused on the acquisitions of Devin Williams and Cody Bellinger. However, Cruz, a 34-year-old reliever, could prove to be one of the most underrated moves in recent Yankees trade history.
In 2024, Cruz posted solid numbers with a 4.86 ERA and 37.8% strikeout rate over 69 games. For 2025, projections expect a significant improvement, with a 3.14 ERA and a 32.4% strikeout rate across 59 games.
Cruz’s journey to the majors has been anything but conventional. After being drafted as an infielder in 2007, he transitioned to pitching in 2011. Struggling in the minors, Cruz spent time in independent ball and the Mexican League, eventually catching the attention of the Reds. Since making his MLB debut in 2022, Cruz has emerged as one of the most effective and underappreciated relievers, ranking among the league’s best in strikeout rate and xFIP.
His splitter has been one of the best in baseball, boasting the highest Statcast Runs Above Average of any splitter over the past two seasons. Despite a higher-than-expected ERA (4.88) during his time with the Reds, Cruz’s underlying metrics tell a different story. Playing behind one of the league’s worst defenses and in a hitter-friendly park, Cruz has been a bit unlucky, with his ERA significantly outpacing his FIP (3.07). Now, with the Yankees’ improved defense and a move from the Great American Ballpark to the more neutral Yankee Stadium, Cruz’s numbers should benefit.
Fernando Cruz
The Yankees’ defense, ranked 10th in Outs Above Average, is a major improvement over the Reds’ defense, which ranked 30th. With better defense behind him, Cruz should see fewer balls turning into base hits, further lowering his ERA. Additionally, Cruz’s projected improvements in walk and home-run rates give reason for optimism.
Despite being 35 years old, Cruz hasn’t shown any signs of losing velocity or movement on his pitches. His strikeout rate is still projected to be among the league’s best, and ZiPS forecasts him to contribute at least one fWAR in 2025. With the Yankees’ bullpen having faced criticism for a lack of swing-and-miss stuff, Cruz, along with Williams, could provide the Yankees with two of the most dominant arms in MLB. Cruz could very well emerge as the most electric pitcher in a revamped bullpen.
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