Are the Yankees for Real? Early Hot Start Raises Questions About Sustainability
The New York Yankees have opened the season with a 9-7 record and, heading into Tuesday’s games, sit atop the AL East—just a half-game ahead of the 9-8 Toronto Blue Jays. While their start hasn’t exactly been dominant, it’s been solid enough to keep them in first place.
But with just 16 games in the books, the big question remains: Can the Yankees keep this up?
That’s what MLB insider and New York Post columnist Jon Heyman asked on Monday. Despite rough weather, an inconsistent offense after a hot opening series against Milwaukee, and the absence of stars like Giancarlo Stanton and Juan Soto, Heyman noted the Yankees’ bats have still delivered.
Offensively, they’ve been elite. With a team OPS+ of 142—meaning they’ve been 42% better than the league average at the plate—the Yankees have the best offensive output in baseball. For context, the second-best team, the St. Louis Cardinals, sit at 128. Only six MLB teams boast an OPS+ above 120. Right now, the Yankees’ offense is outpacing the league by a wide margin.
Pitching? Not So Much
The problem lies in the Yankees’ pitching staff. Their team ERA+ stands at just 93, which is 7% below league average and ranks among the bottom seven in MLB. Despite offseason addition Max Fried performing like an ace—2-0 with a 1.56 ERA in 17 1/3 innings—the rest of the rotation has struggled mightily. Fried is currently the only starter with an ERA below 5.00.
The rotation’s combined ERA of 5.17 is the second-worst in baseball. The bullpen has been better, posting a 3.50 ERA (12th in MLB), but still far from dominant.
Help may be on the way, as injured starters Clarke Schmidt and Luis Gil are expected to return by late May (with Schmidt likely returning first). Still, the current situation has some, like Empire Sports Media founder Alexander Wilson, pushing for the Yankees to make a bold trade.
Pablo López: A Trade Target to Save the Rotation?
Wilson proposed the Yankees target Minnesota Twins right-hander Pablo López as a potential solution. The 29-year-old was off to a brilliant start before suffering a minor hamstring injury, posting a 1.62 ERA over three outings (16 2/3 innings).
López’s advanced metrics are impressive: a 77.5% left-on-base rate, 52% ground ball rate, minimal walks and home runs allowed, and elite percentile rankings in breaking ball value, chase rate, and walk rate. In short, he attacks the zone and generates results—exactly what the Yankees rotation is missing.
Pablo López
The Twins are currently floundering at 5-12, already 5.5 games back in the AL Central. That might make them open to offloading high-salary players like López, who is owed $65.25 million from 2025 to 2027 as part of his four-year, $73.5 million deal.
The Cost: George Lombard Jr.?
But acquiring López won’t come cheap. Wilson suggests the Yankees might have to part with top prospect George Lombard Jr.—their 2023 first-round pick and current No. 1 prospect, ranked No. 98 overall by MLB Pipeline. The infielder, son of Tigers bench coach George Lombard, was selected 26th overall out of Gulliver Prep in Florida.
“It would be a tough pill to swallow,” Wilson admitted. “But prospects are never a sure thing—and if the Yankees are serious about contending this year and beyond, López could be worth the gamble.”
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