I often find myself thinking about the 2018 season. I’m not sure if anyone else does—it might just be me. With the Braves stumbling out of the gate this year, some have suggested that the team’s struggles in 2024 and the start of this season are some kind of karmic payback—maybe for their improbable 2021 championship run or for making a mockery of offense in 2023. But for me, my mind drifts back to 2018.
That was the year the Braves entered the season with barely a 3% chance of making the playoffs. They weren’t expected to be good, or even average, but they shocked everyone with a 90-win season, taking the division in what was nearly a 20-win leap from preseason projections. And they did it without some absurdly lucky record in one-run games or any other statistical anomaly. The team wasn’t dominant, but ranking 10th in position player value and 12th in pitching value while posting around 88 WAR-wins? That kind of overperformance compared to projections is something a franchise might pull off once every 30 years.
Right now, though, the Braves seem to be on the verge of doing the exact opposite. Not every projection system saw them as the clear frontrunner to start the season, but ZiPS did—and now, according to that model, the Braves are more likely to miss the playoffs than make it.
For reference, Fangraphs’ Steamer-ZiPS blend still has them in a dead heat for the division with roughly an 80% chance of making the postseason. But there are some major concerns, many of which mirror the struggles that made 2024 such an uphill battle amid a wave of injuries:
• Reynaldo López remains a major question mark. There’s no clear timetable for his return, and while he managed to bounce back from shoulder issues twice last season, the team has been unusually quiet about their plan for him—often a sign of a potentially lengthy absence.
• Jurickson Profar is a wild card. I was never fully convinced by the hype around him, but now there’s a real chance that even his already modest projections might be too optimistic—especially if they were influenced by, well, let’s just say factors that likely won’t be in play this season.
• The Braves’ offensive approach is a mess. It’s approaching comedy-club levels of absurdity. They’re trying to be more patient at the plate, which in theory should work since opposing pitchers are giving them the lowest zone rate in MLB. But instead of blending selectivity with aggression, they’ve seemingly opted for “just swing less” as their entire strategy. As a result, their bat speed has dropped from first to 19th, their fast swing rate from first to seventh, and their swing length from first to 13th—after dominating all three categories in 2023-24.
• The ball just isn’t flying. So far, this has been one of the “deadest” baseballs we’ve seen, on average. Even if the team’s approach changes overnight, they’re still dealing with an output mismatch. The Braves already have the fourth-largest underperformance in expected wOBA (xwOBA) across MLB, despite also having the third-worst xwOBA overall. They’re tied for sixth in total barrels and fourth in barrel rate, yet somehow rank third-worst in converting barrels into results and second-worst in seeing their barrels turn into outs. Given their pitching, they can win games by capitalizing on the occasional two- or three-run homer—but without that, their offense is completely lifeless.
Which brings me to my main question: When are they going to announce that this has all been a joke? Any moment now, right?
Something like: “Hey, it’s been a tough year, so we thought Braves fans needed a laugh. Just kidding! The team actually started 5-0 with last year’s offensive firepower, and, as a bonus, Spencer Strider and the 2023 NL MVP are back on the roster today. Thanks for playing along!”
So, what do you think? Will we get the announcement later today or tomorrow?
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