When the Yankees traded top pitching prospect Hayden Wesneski to the Chicago Cubs for Scott Effross in 2022, it was seen as a win-now move, aimed at bolstering their bullpen for a postseason run. Effross, known for his unique low-arm slot and solid metrics, appeared to be a great fit for a team contending for October glory. At the time of the trade, he had a 2.54 ERA across 56.2 innings with both Chicago and New York, showing the type of consistency the Yankees were seeking.
However, things didn’t go as planned. Effross suffered an elbow injury late in the 2022 season, ultimately requiring Tommy John surgery. Two years later, the Yankees are still uncertain if he can return to the form that made him an intriguing acquisition.
Effross made his return in 2024, but his results were disappointing. In just 3.1 major-league innings, he posted a 5.40 ERA, struggling to recapture his previous effectiveness. His strikeout rate, once a strength, dropped significantly. However, his ground ball rate remained solid at 60%, indicating that he can still generate weak contact.
In Triple-A, Effross showed some signs of promise with a 2.78 ERA over 32.1 innings, though his 7.79 strikeouts per nine innings were well below his pre-injury numbers. His 70.5% left-on-base rate was also underwhelming, suggesting that while there was potential, much work remains for him to fully recover.
A key issue for Effross is the impact of Tommy John surgery on his velocity. His low release point, which once added deception to his pitches, may now be hindering his ability to generate the sharpness needed for his pitches to be effective. Hitters have been able to square him up more often, which is a major concern. The Yankees will be keeping a close eye on his velocity during spring training, hoping for even a slight increase that could improve his effectiveness, particularly on his secondary pitches.
The trade involving Wesneski and Effross remains unresolved. Wesneski, who showed flashes of potential for the Cubs in 2024 with a 3.86 ERA over 67.2 innings, has yet to become a consistent major-league contributor. His slider has become an elite pitch, but like Effross, he still has work to do in establishing himself at the big-league level. For now, the Cubs have likely won the trade.
For the Yankees, the trade still represents an open question. Effross’s ability to recover could turn this risky move into a successful one. If he regains some of his pre-injury form, he could be a valuable bullpen asset, capable of providing innings and getting outs in high-leverage situations.
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